Li Xiang intends to open a new group again. Who will disappear first, plug-in hybrid or extended-range vehicle?

Li Xiang's Plans to Launch a New Group Will Plug-in Hybrids or Extended-Range Vehicles Take the Lead in Disappearing?

【PhoneAuto】Recently, Li Xiang, the CEO of Ideal Automobile, who is known as the “top player in the automotive industry,” sparked a heated debate on Weibo about the future direction of hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The focus of this discussion is still on the issue of extended-range and plug-in hybrid technology.

Li Xiang, CEO of Ideal Automobile

Li Xiang posted on Weibo, saying, “Chinese domestic brands, car manufacturers that still insist on multi-speed PHEV vehicles, will convert to extended-range technology in the next one or two years. This prediction can be confirmed by 2025.” He later added, “I believe that Great Wall Motors and Geely will also shift towards extended-range technology. Chairman Li Shufu has always been a supporter of extended-range technology, and the London Taxi is the best practice. Chairman Wei Jianjun will definitely agree with it once he personally sees the actual pure electric usage ratio of Blue Mountain large battery hybrid users.”

Li Xiang’s Weibo post

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From Li Xiang’s statements, it is clear that he has great confidence in the future of extended-range vehicles. In his opinion, car manufacturers that adopt multi-speed plug-in hybrid technology will also evolve towards extended-range technology. His words also imply that plug-in hybrid vehicles may disappear earlier than extended-range vehicles in the future.

Although the two mentioned chairmen did not personally respond because they rarely use Weibo, executives from the two car manufacturers refuted Li Xiang’s statements. Geely’s Senior Vice President Yang Xueliang replied on Weibo, saying, “Plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) is one of the mainstream technology routes for new energy vehicles. The choice between extended-range and plug-in hybrid solutions with gear positions depends on how to balance fuel consumption, cost, and performance, as well as considering user charging conditions and driving range, which also depends on whether the research and development capabilities of the company can support it.” He continued to add, “The three-speed PHEV solution simultaneously meets performance and fuel consumption requirements, making it one of the most comprehensive solutions currently available that truly covers all user scenarios. Geely will provide the most suitable technical solutions based on different user needs, and we steadfastly promote the three-speed PHEV solution.”

Geely’s Response from Yang Xueliang

Liu Yanzhao, the General Manager of the Wei brand and concurrently the General Manager of the TANK brand at Great Wall Motors, also responded on Weibo. He said, “From a technical perspective, the extended-range system is just one of the three hybrid DHT modes, and compared to the efficiency of converting internal combustion engine electricity generation and drive, direct drive is clearly more efficient. From a user perspective, our users use the direct drive mode in the efficient range of the engine for 34.7% of their mileage during travel and driving. The efficiency of the multi-speed hybrid solution has absolute advantages. This is not just a cost issue but a pursuit of the most efficient solution for all scenarios.”

Chery executive Liu Yanzhao responds

Apart from the different opinions among executives of car companies, Li Xiang’s “opening act” has also sparked a debate among netizens about the pros and cons of extended-range and plug-in hybrid powertrains. Naturally, people have divided into two factions, those who support extended-range and those who support plug-in hybrids.

For those who believe in extended-range vehicles, they have one requirement: simplicity and usability.

To them, although extended-range technology is indeed simpler compared to multi-gear plug-in hybrids, simplicity does not mean outdated. In fact, simplicity is an advantage of extended-range vehicles. Many supporters of extended-range vehicles believe that since the range extender does not participate in vehicle propulsion and only functions as a generator to recharge the battery, extended-range vehicles are more convenient and durable in terms of daily maintenance. Additionally, the simple technology makes vehicle maintenance cheaper compared to plug-in hybrids that have more components such as engines and transmissions.

Lixiang L7 extended-range system

Another benefit of the simplicity brought by extended-range vehicle structure is cost. This is reflected in two aspects: the large battery and the selling price.

Extended-range vehicles have been favored by many consumers in recent years due to their large batteries. Instead of investing heavily in research and development as well as hardware costs for multi-gear hybrids, extended-range vehicles can allocate the cost saved from the range extender to the battery.

Zerun C11 equipped with large battery

Looking at the current extended-range vehicles, their battery capacities are generally larger than vehicles with hybrid systems. For example, all three models of Lixiang currently on sale have a battery capacity of over 40 kWh and can achieve a pure electric range of over 200 km in the CLTC test cycle. Zerun Automobile recently introduced the super-extended range version of the C01 and C11, both of which are equipped with a 43.7 kWh battery. The C01 can achieve a pure electric range of 316 km in the CLTC test cycle, a performance comparable to some fully electric models.

The inclusion of a large battery allows extended-range vehicles to be used as fully electric vehicles for daily urban commuting, not only providing the driving experience of a pure electric car but also further reducing the cost of daily transportation. When a long-distance trip is needed, the range extender can help alleviate range anxiety, which is the most important factor for most users choosing an extended-range vehicle.

Ideal L7

Another major advantage of extended-range vehicles is reflected in the cost. Compared to hybrid models, the cost of their powertrain is lower, and compared to pure electric models, they can solve the cost issue with smaller batteries. Therefore, extended-range models can achieve lower prices with the same configuration (like Zeekr), or higher configurations with the same price (like Ideal). In situations where it does not significantly affect driving, people are definitely more inclined to pursue higher cost performance.

As for consumers who support multi-gear hybrid models, their reasons are equally obvious: plug-in hybrid models can bring lower overall energy consumption performance and can cover a variety of usage scenarios.

Geely Galaxy L7

In the eyes of these consumers, even though extended-range models have a simple and easy-to-maintain structure, they also have some drawbacks. One frequently mentioned is their higher fuel consumption performance during high-speed driving, sometimes even higher than some fuel-powered vehicles. Since the range extender does not directly contribute to the driving during high-speed driving, it still runs on pure electric power, which leads to higher electricity consumption. In order to maintain a balance in energy, the range extender needs to increase power generation, which naturally increases fuel consumption.

On the other hand, plug-in hybrid vehicles can have both the engine and electric motor active during high-speed driving. If the engine power is sufficient, the manufacturer can even use the engine alone, while multiple gear ratios can keep the engine operating in an efficient state, thus reducing fuel consumption. In urban areas or low-speed sections, pure electric driving is mainly used to avoid inefficient operation of the engine, achieving fuel efficiency.

Geely Lynk & Co HEV

In fact, the current usage modes of multi-gear hybrid models offered by traditional automakers such as Geely and Great Wall also include extended-range mode. Take the Lynk & Co HEV system equipped on some Geely models as an example. This powertrain system provides four driving modes: pure electric, extended-range, intelligent, and performance. It can meet various usage scenarios such as urban areas, high-speed driving, and off-roading while delivering optimal energy consumption performance in each scenario.

Weipai Lanshan Multi-mode Driving

Many supporters of hybrid vehicles believe that the reason why new forces such as Ideal and Zeekr have not introduced multi-gear hybrid models is not because they don’t want to, but because they can’t. The development of multi-gear hybrids requires very high technical requirements for the vehicle’s transmission system. This requires automakers to have a certain level of technical expertise in this area, and new automakers lack experience from the era of fuel-powered vehicles, making it difficult for them to achieve technological breakthroughs in this aspect.

Netizens claim that nowadays, the ideal is like the former China Telecom, which occupied a significant part of the mobile communication market with the cheap and user-friendly features of the Xiaolingtong. However, after obtaining the mobile communication license, Telecom immediately abandoned Xiaolingtong. The current extended-range technology can be compared to Xiaolingtong in the past.

Actually, the debate between extended-range and plug-in hybrid powertrain modes is more about the debate between two routes. Extended-range can be seen as an electric vehicle equipped with a generator, while plug-in hybrid is more like a fuel vehicle equipped with an electric motor. They belong to completely different categories, which may also imply their different destinies in the future.

Although electric vehicles are likely to become the mainstream in the future, it does not mean the complete end of fuel vehicles. Even in environmentally-conscious Europe, the previously planned 2035 ban on fuel vehicles was forced to make exceptions due to opposition from countries like Germany, allowing the future continued sale of fuel vehicles that use synthetic fuels. Therefore, fuel vehicles will not completely disappear but will coexist with electric vehicles. Of course, for environmental reasons, the government may impose heavy taxes on them, making it difficult for fuel vehicles to become everyday transportation and instead continue to appear in niche markets targeting supercars, hardcore off-roaders, and the wealthy.

Lamborghini V12 plug-in hybrid supercar Revuelto

If developed in this way, plug-in hybrid models, as fuel vehicles, are likely to be preserved alongside fuel vehicles and become the standard configuration for future fuel vehicles. On the one hand, they can further reduce fuel emissions, while the electric motor can also provide stronger torque release than the engine, making it very suitable for use in supercars and hardcore off-road vehicles that require instant power, such as Lamborghini and Aston Martin, which have already begun adopting plug-in hybrid technology in their flagship supercars.

On the other hand, extended-range models are essentially electric vehicles. They are transitional products introduced because current battery technology is not mature enough to effectively solve range anxiety and recharging needs. With the continuous improvement of battery technology, once the highly anticipated solid-state batteries can truly achieve long-range capabilities and fast recharging, the pain points addressed by extended-range models as electric vehicles will no longer exist, and therefore, they will lose their meaning of existence.

As a result, it appears that extended-range models may disappear earlier than plug-in hybrid models. This is not necessarily related to the technology level between the two, but rather to the development of the overall route they represent.

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